Nevertheless, it would be a mistake if assuming that Circular 13 or the
unpredictable fluctuations in foreign currency and gold markets have led
interest rates to be in the risk of being uncontrollable.
The assumption may sometimes cause subjectivity, and the pressure on
the market may be enlarged by administrative orders. This approach has
proven to be ineffective, and has caused market distortions. The adverse
effects from the policies to deal with high inflation and recession
prevention in 2008 and 2009 are the clear evidences.
It is common that once demand exceeds supply, the interest rates tend to
go up or it is difficult to pull them down as expected.
Nevertheless, the current paradox is that a number of banks have been in
excess of capital for a long time, but they still have to maintain
lending rates at relatively high levels, aiming to offset the loss for
the part of capital, which have not been lent out or was raised at high
deposit rates in the previous time.
An equally important cause is hunting for feasible, efficient projects
with high reliability for lending is not easy work, especially when the
global economy has not really overcome the stagnation period. In
addition, the chain effect of the Vinashin restructuring has made many
banks hesitant in credit investment, leading the credit growth in the
recent time to be mainly based on old and traditional customers.
Currently, some large banks have started cutting interest rates. This is
expected to be the positive signs to overcome the situation when banks
standstill and observe each other, and are not active in reducing
interest rate, thereby creating momentum for the interest rate reduction
to take place more evenly throughout the banking system in the near
future.
However, to accelerate that process to take place smoothly and quickly,
there should be radical solutions to cut down the deposit rates in both
dong and US dollar.
Ceiling level is proposed to be applied to deposit rates in US dollar
(of organisations and the public). This measure would not only have a
dual effect to minimise foreign currency speculation and curb
dollarisation, would but also have positive effect on increasing dong
supply in the condition that exchange rates continue to be relatively
stable.
One of the major obstacles for the current capital mobilisation is that
the psychology of inflation expectations continues being uncertain.
The inflation target of seven to eight percent in 2010 set by the
government has not really created positive signs to the market.
Especially, the unexpected rise of dollar and gold prices, the high
trade deficit, resonating with "Vinashin debt crisis" have raised many
concerns from the public about the trust in the value of dong. The drop
of Vietnam in credit rating done by the international credit rating
orgranisations in the recent time was not random and should be
considered valuable warning.
In brief, the handling of the increase-decrease interest rates issue
still focuses on the effective management of the capital demand and
supply in the economy. The two important subjects in the interest rate
reduction process are the State Bank of Vietnam and the commercial
banking systems. This is not only the responsibility but also the duty
that they cannot refuse.
In a narrow aspect, effective management means the central bank should
be a step ahead in harmoniously dealing with the relationship between
banks and customers towards a win-win situation, actively lower lending
rates along with the consensus deposit rate cut, and together with
commercial banks to create the strong interaction status to support the
economic grows towards the set targets.